What CV Path Analysis Revealed: Why CTV (TVer) Contributes 7.5x More Conversions Than Smartphones

“We can’t see the effect of awareness ads.” Anyone running awareness campaigns such as TV commercials or digital audio ads runs into this wall sooner or later. Under last-click measurement, these media tend to be undervalued as ads that people simply passed by.

This time, we used the DSP The Trade Desk to run a “CV Path (conversion path) analysis” with in-app orders as the conversion, and the data overturned that conventional wisdom.

Background: Results That Last-Click Measurement Could Not See

Ad effectiveness has traditionally been measured on a last-click basis, crediting the last medium that was clicked. This approach has the following problems.

• Undervalued awareness media: Even if someone becomes interested after seeing a video or audio ad, if they later search and convert, that contribution is ignored
• Breaks across devices: Cross-device behavior, such as seeing an ad on TV (CTV) and converting on a smartphone, cannot be tracked

In this test too, conversions on a last-click basis were 201, but once indirect touchpoints were included through Path analysis, conversions turned out to be 1,521 (about 7.5x).

What We Did: Sharpening the View of Attitude Change with The Trade Desk

• Period: March to April 2025
• Media: TVer, Abema, Spotify, radiko
• Analysis method: CV Path analysis (analyzing each user’s touchpoint history, number of contacts, and time from contact to conversion)

Three Facts the Data Revealed

1. TVer (CTV) Sticks in Memory After Just One Exposure

Analyzing the conversion flow, the strength of CTV (connected TV) on its own stood out compared with touchpoints on PCs and smartphones.

2. The Optimal Frequency Is Three Exposures, and One High-Quality Exposure Is the Key

In the CPA analysis by frequency (number of exposures), CPA fell up to the third exposure and rose after that. For first purchases in particular, a single high-impact exposure generated the most conversions, more than showing ads repeatedly, and the data backed up that investing in a high-quality viewing environment such as CTV makes sense.

3. CTV and Audio Ads Are Memorable, and Their Effect Lasts Even 10 Days Later

• CTV (TVer): The conversion effect lasted as long as the conversion happened within 10 days of the first contact. We saw memory take hold, with people “remembering later and searching”
• Audio ads (Spotify): The effect continued even after delivery ended, lifting medium- to long-term conversions
• Web video (smartphone): It works quickly, but on a last-touch basis its effect tends to fade within 4 days

Outlook: “Offensive” Budget Allocation Ahead of Peak Demand Periods

The data proved that CTV advertising is not an investment in “atmosphere building”, but a practical acquisition tactic with lower CPA than smartphone ads and a longer-lasting effect.

• Shift budget to CTV: Centered on TVer (CTV), which offers the best cost efficiency, aim to maximize acquisition in peak demand periods
• Frequency (FQ) control: Avoid wasted contacts and manage CPA using the optimal “three exposures” as a guide
• Creative improvement: Aim to raise response rates through A/B tests of audio creative

If you would like to build a data-driven operating setup that makes the “invisible effect” of awareness campaigns visible and lets you account for your budget allocation, please feel free to contact us.